Premier League 2024-2025 R7 Update & R6 Report.

Greetings to everyone. What a round this was! This past round was really difficult to predict when looking at the data and the upcoming is no different. It has been a fascinating week and needless to say the quest to capitalize on the predictions is on going by trying to form betting strategies based on the predictions at hand.

R7 Update.

The model is updated to reflect the newest data points. Everyone can now access predictions for round 7 of Premier League.

R6 Success Report.

When it comes to the success rate of this past round, the results were not satisfactory. Mostly came into play some weaknesses of the model that have been identified in the past. There is always randomness that affects the final results which should not be dismissed. Without it, we would be living in a deterministic world, which would have been boring to the least. In any case the model achieved a 60% (0.6) success rate, which is the lower threshold so far.

There is some additional news though. Since round 6, I have introduced an experimental version of the model which runs in parallel with the current production model, i.e. the one accessed by all users. The experimental model achieved 70% (0.7) success rate.

Now whether this is just luck or an actual marginal improvement remains inconclusive. I will need more data points to confirm a consistently better success rate compared to the production model before I deploy it.

Road map.

I would also like to present some notable activity in the background regarding upcoming future possibilities opening up.

This past week I have started working on back-end infrastructure to enable a gradual but steady move from a research and development to commercial mode. In other words, since the results I get, are within the acceptable range, it is a good time to start developing infrastructure that enables further commercialization of the service.

The objectives of this effort are two. I want to be able to add more championships efficiently. I also want to add the ability to generate over/under predictions for matches in those championships.

A significant progress is made already with respect to the first objective. The second objective is still mostly on the "whiteboard".