Success rate definition and report.

Introduction and definition of success rate.

The basic concept behind any prediction model is to remove uncertainty, enabling its users to make decisions they can rely upon. A dynamic game like football or soccer is complex. The balance between two opponents may change at any time during the game. It may happen due to unpredictable events such as a "booking" or a mismatch among opposing players while the game unfolds.

A prediction model should not be expected to reflect random events that may happen on e.g. irrational behavior of a player or a referee. It should be expected to provide direction with respect to the final result based on objective data points taken into account.

Given the complexity of the game, I have decided to build a model that would provide the two most probable outcomes of a game between two teams. If the final result of any game is always or almost always among the predictions my model has provided, then each user has been granted an increased probability to be on the winning side.

Success rate definition.

I define as a successful prediction, the case where the final result of a game has been one of the two most probable possible outcomes my model has indicated.

Approaching the problem this way, suddenly the odds are 50%-50% instead of 33.3% for each possible outcome. This is a great advance and an important edge, especially when betting is involved.

From a strict probabilistic point of view, a bound probability of a success rate of 80% (0.8) times the probability to get it right, 50% (0.5) equals 40% (0.4). This is still greater than the 33.3% of a traditional approach. If instead the model provides a 70% (0.7) success rate, then it still provides marginally greater odds of 35% (0.35).

The model offers a similar experience to a traditional approach when its success rate is equal to 66.6% (0.66). Thus far it has managed to outweigh this threshold and offer an improved experience for those who want an edge for any reason, leisure, betting or anything else really.

Success rate report.

Taking into account the above definition, the success rate for round 4 was 70% and for round 5 was 80%. Had Manchester City not scored literally at the end of the game on round 5, we would be talking about 90% success rate.

Randomness in its greatest or the host being favored, you decide, but this is the official result.